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SPC Forecast Products

Storm Prediction Center

01/22/2019 05:45 PM
SPC - No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 22 22:46:02 UTC 2019
No watches are valid as of Tue Jan 22 22:46:02 UTC 2019.
01/22/2019 03:37 PM
MD 0044 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0044
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0236 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Areas affected...Eastern Iowa...Northern Illinois and far southeast

Concerning...Freezing rain 

Valid 222036Z - 230030Z

SUMMARY...Light to moderate freezing rain is overspreading much of
Eastern Iowa, northern Illinois and far southern Wisconsin.

DISCUSSION...Freezing drizzle has been falling for most of the day
across the MD area with ice accretion rates around 0.01 to 0.03
inches per hour. Ice accumulation has shown to be efficient so far
with ice accretion at least twice the water equivalent at most
observing sites. This efficient icing is likely due to a combination
of light precipitation rates, well below freezing surface
temperatures, and winds around 10 to 15 mph. These rates will be
increasing over the next few hours as heavier precipitation spreads
from west to east. The first signs of these increasing rates can be
seen on radar in southeast Iowa and western Illinois as well as
central Illinois.

Precipitation is currently falling as freezing drizzle/freezing rain
across the entire MD area as the DGZ is yet to saturate across
northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin despite the entire column
being cold enough to support snow. Therefore, expect precipitation
to change to snow in these areas as the column saturates and
precipitation rates increase within the next few hours. The HREF
shows very little movement of the warm air aloft through the
evening, so the rain/snow line is expected to stay within a county
either side of the 0C 850mb line on the graphic. 

The timing of this heavier freezing precipitation will coincide with
the evening commute across the highlighted area including the Quad
Cities, Chicago, Rockford, and Milwaukee. In addition, road
conditions are expected to worsen after dark as the warming effects
of filtered sunlight go away and precipitation rates increase. 

Through time, surface temperatures are expected to increase south of
the rain/snow line which will eventually end the freezing rain for
most areas and result in snow north and rain south by late this

..Bentley.. 01/22/2019

...Please see for graphic product...


LAT...LON   40389127 40549160 40709194 41169186 41449160 41779107
            42419019 42638968 42808873 42738814 42698779 42518779
            42398777 42238775 42138764 41968756 41848749 41728742
            41598740 41428747 41288796 41148850 41038909 40838939
            40678968 40559002 40479043 40379084 40389127 

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01/22/2019 02:49 PM
SPC Jan 22, 2019 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Valid 222000Z - 231200Z


Thunderstorm potential will remain low across the United States
through tonight.

...20Z Outlook Update...
Latest model output and observational data provide no substantive
support for change of ongoing forecast of less than 10 percent
thunderstorm probabilities through 12Z Wednesday morning.

..Kerr.. 01/22/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

A positive-tilt midlevel trough will progress eastward over the
central/southern Plains toward the MS Valley through early
Wednesday, as an associated surface cyclone develops northeastward
from OK to the mid MS/lower OH Valley region.  Low-level moisture
return in the warm sector will continue through the period, though
moisture increases will be slow given the prior frontal intrusion
through the entire Gulf and western Caribbean basins.  This
moistening will occur beneath a warm elevated mixed layer and strong
cap per regional 12z soundings.  There is a small chance for
sufficiently deep buoyancy for lightning production with elevated
convection will be across parts of AR/MO tonight in the strong
low-level warm advection zone, though CAPE will remain limited
(around 100 J/kg) with cloud tops mostly warmer than -15 to -20 C. 
Other isolated midlevel convection rooted above 700 mb may occur
overnight across south TX.  However, given the marginal moisture
return and warm profiles aloft to limit buoyancy, the prospects for
thunderstorms still appear too low for any outlook areas.

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01/22/2019 01:42 PM
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 PM CST Tue Jan 22 2019

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

No changes needed to ongoing forecast. See previous discussion for
more details.

..Wendt.. 01/22/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0148 AM CST Tue Jan 22 2019/

Large-scale upper troughing will dominate the central/eastern CONUS
on Day 2/Wednesday as upper ridging remains over the eastern
Pacific. A surface cold front will shift quickly offshore the TX
Coast and into the western Gulf of Mexico early Wednesday.

...Portions of Deep South TX...
Behind the cold front, locally strong/gusty northerly winds of 15-20
mph will likely occur Wednesday morning across parts of Deep South
TX as the surface pressure gradient remains modestly enhanced. RH
values are forecast to become lowered into the 20-25% range by
mid-morning as diurnal heating occurs. Fine fuels remain generally
dry/receptive to large fire starts owing to a lack of recent
substantial precipitation, and an elevated area has been included to
address the expected meteorological conditions. The northerly winds
should slowly weaken through the afternoon as the surface pressure
gradient gradually relaxes.

...Please see for graphic product...

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