SBYC BurgeeSandy Bay Yacht Club
Weather Center


SPC Forecast Products

Storm Prediction Center


12/06/2019 05:29 AM
SPC - No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 6 10:30:04 UTC 2019
No watches are valid as of Fri Dec 6 10:30:04 UTC 2019.
12/06/2019 05:29 AM
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Fri Dec 6 10:30:04 UTC 2019
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Fri Dec 6 10:30:04 UTC 2019.
12/06/2019 03:00 AM
SPC Dec 6, 2019 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Outlook Image
Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected Sunday.

...Synopsis...
A fairly progressive upper pattern is anticipated on Sunday. A
northern-stream shortwave trough is expected to move through the
northern Rockies and into the into the northern/central Plains while
a southern-stream shortwave trough moves through the southern High
Plains and northern portions of the southern Plains. At the same
time, a more compact shortwave trough is expected to move across CA.
Overall evolution of these systems will likely contribute to a
development of an expansive upper trough across North America. By
early Monday morning, this upper trough will likely extend from the
Hudson Bay southwestward through southern CA.

At the surface, lee cyclogenesis is expected to result in a low 
near the CO/KS/OK border intersection Sunday evening. This low will
likely move eastward along the OK/KS border overnight, reaching the
OK/KS/MO border intersection by early Monday morning. Some moisture
return is possible across southeast/east TX and LA  but warm
temperatures aloft will preclude deep convection. 

Cold temperatures aloft and persistent forcing for ascent may result
in a few lightning strikes across the Great Basin Sunday afternoon
and evening. However, coverage will be isolated and is currently
expected to remain below 10%.

..Mosier.. 12/06/2019

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12/06/2019 03:49 AM
SPC Dec 6, 2019 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook Image
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 AM CST Fri Dec 06 2019

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An expansive upper trough is expected to extend from the Hudson Bay
through southern CA early D4/Monday. Medium-range guidance is in
good agreement that this upper trough will gradually progress
eastward, accompanied by a strengthening wind field. By 
D6/Wednesday, strong mid-level flow (i.e. around 100 kt at 500mb) is
expected to extend throughout the southern periphery of this upper
trough, arcing from the northern Plains into the TN Valley and then
back through the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. 

Despite this strong flow aloft, stable low-level conditions will
limit thunderstorm development throughout much of the week. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible along and immediately behind a cold front
across the Lower/Mid MS Valley on D4/Monday and Southeast on
D5/Tuesday. 

Active upper-air pattern is expected to persist through the end of
the week with medium-range guidance showing the potential for
another southern-stream shortwave at the end of the week. Poor model
agreement regarding the timing of this system leads to low
predictability, but the overall pattern may result in some severe
threat if sufficient moisture return occurs.

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