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05/20/2019 02:51 PM
SPC PDS Tornado Watch 199
WW 199 TORNADO OK TX 201835Z - 210300Z
WW 0199 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 199
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
135 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  Central and Western Oklahoma
  Northwest Texas

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 135 PM until
  1000 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
  Numerous tornadoes and several intense tornadoes expected
  Widespread damaging winds and scattered significant gusts to 80
    mph expected
  Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter expected

SUMMARY...An outbreak of tornadoes, including the risk of intense
and long-track tornadoes, is expected to develop this afternoon
across the watch area.  Very large hail and damaging wind gusts are
expected with the numerous supercell storms.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 95 statute miles
north and south of a line from 40 miles west of Altus OK to 50 miles
east southeast of Chandler OK. For a complete depiction of the watch
see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 197...WW 198...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 70 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 23035.

...Hart

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05/20/2019 02:51 PM
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198
WW 198 SEVERE TSTM CT MA ME NH NY VT CW 201800Z - 210100Z
WW 0198 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 198
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
200 PM EDT Mon May 20 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of 
  Western Connecticut
  Western and Central Massachusetts
  Central and Western Maine
  New Hampshire
  Southeast New York
  Central and Southern Vermont
  Coastal Waters

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 200 PM until
  900 PM EDT.

* Primary threats include...
  Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
  Isolated large hail events to 1 inch in diameter possible

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to track
across the watch area through the afternoon and early evening,
posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 85
statute miles east and west of a line from 55 miles northwest of
Bangor ME to 15 miles southwest of Windsor Locks CT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Severe Thunderstorm Watch means conditions are
favorable for severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch area.
Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for threatening
weather conditions and listen for later statements and possible
warnings. Severe thunderstorms can and occasionally do produce
tornadoes.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 196...WW 197...

AVIATION...A few severe thunderstorms with hail surface and aloft to
1 inch. Extreme turbulence and surface wind gusts to 60 knots. A few
cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 450. Mean storm motion vector
26030.

...Hart

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05/20/2019 02:50 PM
SPC PDS Tornado Watch 197
WW 197 TORNADO TX 201735Z - 210100Z
WW 0197 Image

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Tornado Watch Number 197
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1235 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Tornado Watch for portions of 
  West Texas including much of the Panhandle

* Effective this Monday afternoon and evening from 1235 PM until
  800 PM CDT.

...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...

* Primary threats include...
  Numerous tornadoes expected with a few intense tornadoes likely
  Widespread large hail and scattered very large hail events to 4
    inches in diameter expected
  Widespread damaging wind gusts to 70 mph likely

SUMMARY...Intense tornadic supercell thunderstorms are expected to
develop across west Texas as the eastern half of the Texas
Panhandle.  In addition to the risk of strong tornadoes, very large
hail and damaging winds are likely in the strongest cells.

The tornado watch area is approximately along and 55 statute miles
east and west of a line from 50 miles east northeast of Amarillo TX
to 35 miles east of Big Spring TX. For a complete depiction of the
watch see the associated watch outline update (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A Tornado Watch means conditions are favorable for
tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in and close to the watch
area. Persons in these areas should be on the lookout for
threatening weather conditions and listen for later statements
and possible warnings.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 196...

AVIATION...Tornadoes and a few severe thunderstorms with hail
surface and aloft to 4 inches. Extreme turbulence and surface wind
gusts to 60 knots. A few cumulonimbi with maximum tops to 600. Mean
storm motion vector 24035.

...Hart

Read more

05/20/2019 02:51 PM
SPC Tornado Watch 199 Status Reports
WW 0199 Status Updates
WW 0199 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 199

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MARSH..05/20/19

ATTN...WFO...OUN...TSA...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 199 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

OKC005-009-011-013-015-017-019-027-029-031-033-037-039-043-047-
049-051-055-057-063-065-067-069-073-075-081-083-085-087-093-095-
099-103-107-109-111-113-117-119-123-125-129-133-137-141-143-149-
201940-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ATOKA                BECKHAM             BLAINE              
BRYAN                CADDO               CANADIAN            
CARTER               CLEVELAND           COAL                
COMANCHE             COTTON              CREEK               
CUSTER               DEWEY               GARFIELD            
GARVIN               GRADY               GREER               
HARMON               HUGHES              JACKSON             
JEFFERSON            JOHNSTON            KINGFISHER          
KIOWA                LINCOLN             LOGAN               
LOVE                 MCCLAIN             MAJOR               
MARSHALL             MURRAY              NOBLE               
OKFUSKEE             OKLAHOMA            OKMULGEE            
OSAGE                PAWNEE              PAYNE               
PONTOTOC             POTTAWATOMIE        ROGER MILLS         
SEMINOLE             STEPHENS            TILLMAN             
TULSA                WASHITA             


Read more

05/20/2019 02:51 PM
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 198 Status Reports
WW 0198 Status Updates
WW 0198 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 198

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MARSH..05/20/19

ATTN...WFO...ALY...BOX...GYX...CAR...BTV...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 198 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

CTC005-201940-

CT 
.    CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

LITCHFIELD           


MEC001-005-007-011-013-015-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-201940-

ME 
.    MAINE COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ANDROSCOGGIN         CUMBERLAND          FRANKLIN            
KENNEBEC             KNOX                LINCOLN             
OXFORD               PENOBSCOT           PISCATAQUIS         
SAGADAHOC            SOMERSET            WALDO               
YORK                 


MAC003-011-013-015-017-027-201940-

MA 
.    MASSACHUSETTS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERKSHIRE            FRANKLIN            HAMPDEN             
Read more

05/20/2019 02:50 PM
SPC Tornado Watch 197 Status Reports
WW 0197 Status Updates
WW 0197 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 197

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MARSH..05/20/19

ATTN...WFO...AMA...MAF...LUB...SJT...


STATUS REPORT FOR WT 197 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

TXC011-033-045-065-075-087-101-107-115-125-129-151-153-169-179-
189-191-207-211-227-253-263-269-303-305-317-335-345-353-375-381-
393-415-433-437-441-483-201940-

TX 
.    TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ARMSTRONG            BORDEN              BRISCOE             
CARSON               CHILDRESS           COLLINGSWORTH       
COTTLE               CROSBY              DAWSON              
DICKENS              DONLEY              FISHER              
FLOYD                GARZA               GRAY                
HALE                 HALL                HASKELL             
HEMPHILL             HOWARD              JONES               
KENT                 KING                LUBBOCK             
LYNN                 MARTIN              MITCHELL            
MOTLEY               NOLAN               POTTER              
RANDALL              ROBERTS             SCURRY              
STONEWALL            SWISHER             TAYLOR              
WHEELER              


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
Read more

05/20/2019 11:37 AM
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 196 Status Reports
WW 0196 Status Updates
WW 0196 Status Image

STATUS REPORT ON WW 196

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.

..MARSH..05/20/19

ATTN...WFO...DDC...ICT...OUN...


STATUS REPORT FOR WS 196 

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS 

KSC007-033-077-191-201640-

KS 
.    KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BARBER               COMANCHE            HARPER              
SUMNER               


OKC003-011-039-043-045-047-053-059-071-073-083-093-103-119-129-
151-153-201640-

OK 
.    OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

ALFALFA              BLAINE              CUSTER              
DEWEY                ELLIS               GARFIELD            
GRANT                HARPER              KAY                 
KINGFISHER           LOGAN               MAJOR               
NOBLE                PAYNE               ROGER MILLS         
WOODS                WOODWARD            


THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY.  PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
Read more

05/20/2019 02:38 PM
SPC MD 703
MD 0703 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 197... FOR TEXAS PANHANDLE/WEST TEXAS
MD 0703 Image

Mesoscale Discussion 0703
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0137 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Areas affected...Texas Panhandle/West Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 197...

Valid 201837Z - 201930Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 197 continues.

SUMMARY...Rapid development of tornadic supercells expected in the
next 1-2 hours.

DISCUSSION...Convective initiation is underway across the Texas
Panhandle and west Texas within an environment characterized by
MLCAPE of 3500-4000 J/kg, effective bulk shear of 50-60 kt, and
effective SRH of 300+ m^2/s^2. In addition, observed soundings
launched by the TORUS field program in this area (Wellington, TX)
indicate weak CIN and a favorable low-level kinematic environment
for tornadoes in proximity to the developing convection, with a
sickle-shaped hodograph and 0-1 km AGL SRH near 300 m^2/s^2.
Convection that is developing now is expected to mature quickly, and
given the ambient environment, storms should quickly evolve into
supercell structures capable of significant, long-tracked tornadoes
within the next hour or two -- in agreement with SPC objective
analysis.

..Karstens.. 05/20/2019

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   33120006 32720106 33020183 34230183 35030080 35110006
            33999992 33120006 

Read more

05/20/2019 01:15 PM
SPC Center Public Severe Weather Outlook (PWO)
Public Severe Weather Outlook
PWO Image
PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1214 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019

...Outbreak of tornadoes and severe thunderstorms expected over
parts of the southern Plains today and tonight...

* LOCATIONS...
  Much of Oklahoma
  Northwest Texas and the eastern Texas Panhandle

* HAZARDS...
  Numerous intense and long-track tornadoes
  Widespread damaging winds, some hurricane force
  Widespread large hail, some baseball size

* SUMMARY...
  An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and
  violent, is expected today into this evening over portions of
  northwest Texas into western and central Oklahoma. More isolated
  but still potentially dangerous severe weather, including
  tornadoes and destructive winds and hail, is possible in
  surrounding parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas.

Preparedness actions...

Review your severe weather safety procedures for the possibility
of dangerous weather today. Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio, 
weather.gov, or other media for watches and warnings. A tornado
watch means that conditions are favorable for tornadoes to form
during the next several hours. If a tornado warning is issued for
your area, move to a place of safety, ideally in a basement or
interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building.

&&

..Marsh.. 05/20/2019
Read more

05/20/2019 12:30 PM
SPC May 20, 2019 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Outlook Image
Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1126 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 201630Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF
NORTHWEST TEXAS AND THE EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE TO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND...

...SUMMARY...
An outbreak of tornadoes, some potentially long-track and violent,
is expected today into this evening over portions of northwest Texas
into western and central Oklahoma.  More isolated but still
potentially dangerous severe weather, including tornadoes and
destructive winds and hail, is possible in surrounding parts of
Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Arkansas.

...Southern Plains...
A tornado outbreak is forecast to unfold this afternoon and evening
across parts of northwest TX and western/central OK.  Moisture
continues to stream northward across the region, with dewpoints in
the 70s yielding very high afternoon MLCAPE values of 3000-5000
J/kg.  Meanwhile, shear profiles are also rapidly increasing as a
50-60 knot southerly low-level jet strenghens across the area.  This
is leading to a rare combination of extreme instability and large
hodographs as depicted on forecast soundings throughout the region.

Given the weak capping inversion, strong low-level theta-e
advection, and approaching large-scale forcing, all signs point to
the development of numerous intense supercells this afternoon across
the MDT and HIGH risk areas.  Any storm that persists in this
environment will pose a risk of strong tornadoes, very large hail,
and damaging winds.  The corridor of greatest concern, including a
threat of long-track and potentially violent tornadoes, will extend
from the southeast TX Panhandle into western and central Oklahoma.

Multiple rounds of severe storms are expected to affect these areas,
with new storms forming this evening over west TX and spreading
across north TX and much of OK overnight.  These storms will
maintain a risk of large hail, damaging winds, and isolated
tornadoes through the night in some areas.

...Northeast States...
Relatively strong heating is occurring over New England and eastern
NY, where a moist and moderately unstable air mass is present. 
Scattered afternoon thunderstorms are expected to form in this area,
and spread eastward toward the New England coast during the late
afternoon.  Steepening low level lapse rates and westerly flow aloft
will promote a risk of gusty/damaging winds and some hail in the
stronger cells.

..Hart/Karstens.. 05/20/2019

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05/20/2019 01:27 PM
SPC May 20, 2019 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Outlook Image
Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1224 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS AN AREA
CENTERED OVER THE OZARKS VICINITY...WITH LESSER RISK EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes are
possible from the middle Mississippi Valley south into the Arklatex
on Tuesday.  Additional daytime storms, capable of producing hail,
gusty winds, and a couple of tornadoes, will also be possible into
parts of the central Plains.

...Synopsis...
While an upper low is expected to shift quickly east-southeastward
out of Quebec across northern New England Tuesday, the remainder of
the U.S. roughly east of the Mississippi Valley will remain under
the influence of upper ridging through the period.  Meanwhile, over
the western half of the country, rather complex evolution of an
upper trough is expected, as an upper low shifting out of the
central High Plains early rotates north-northeastward across the
Plains in a Fujiwhara-like manner, in tandem with a second low
rotating southward across the West Coast states.  

At the surface, an occluded low will follow a similar path to its
parent upper vortex, shifting north-northeast across the Plains. 
The occluded front will shift northward across KS/western Missouri
through the day, while a cold front spreads south and east across
the southern Plains and Ozarks, and a warm front progresses
northeast across the Mid Mississippi and Ohio Valleys.  Within the
warm sector, one or more rounds of primarily linear, strong to
severe storms are expected; strong to severe storms are also
expected farther west into the central Plains near the occluded
low/front.

...Mid Mississippi Valley south-southwest across the Arklatex and
eastern Oklahoma...
A complex, difficult-to-delineate severe weather risk is apparent
for Tuesday, centered over the Missouri/Arkansas region.  This
complexity/uncertainty stems primarily from what is expected to be a
large convective cluster/MCS which is expected to move across the
Ozarks region prior to, or into, early stages of the Day 2 period
(Tuesday morning).  With the NAM forecasting a southerly 80 kt
nocturnal low-level jet over the southern Plains prior to the
beginning of the period, ahead of the negatively tilted upper system
ejecting into/across the southern Plains, widespread early
convection moving across the Day 2 risk area seems a near certainty.


The question is to what degree the convection can shift eastward,
and more specifically, to what degree airmass recovery can occur
ahead of the warm front.  Synoptically and kinematically, the setup
would favor a rather substantial severe risk, including potential
for tornadoes along with damaging winds and hail. 
Thermodynamically, however, is where the scenario hinges.

At this time, the ongoing forecast will be maintained -- reflecting
a scenario (supported by a preponderance of CAM solutions) that
overnight convection will shift east into the mid Mississippi and
lower Ohio Valley area, and dissipate through the morning,
permitting respectable destabilization to occur ahead of the cold
front as a remnant outflow boundary retreats across the Ozarks. 
This boundary could represent a focus for tornado potential, but
otherwise it appears that a linearly organized band of frontal
storms -- with embedded complex/potential rotating elements -- will
shift across the risk area through the first half of the period,
likely reaching southern and eastern Missouri/central Arkansas by
sunset.

Risk may continue into the evening across the mid Missouri and lower
Ohio Valleys, though uncertainty increases due to airmass concerns
-- related to both diurnal cooling, and remnant effects from the
earlier precipitation/cloud cover.

...The Kansas/southern Nebraska vicinity...
As a band of cold-frontal storms moves eastward out of the Plains
and into Missouri through early stages of the period -- likely
accompanied by ongoing risk for all-hazard severe weather, at least
some heating through possibly broken cloud cover is expected to
occur westward, across the Kansas vicinity, in its wake.  With a
remnant, modestly moist airmass, this heating may yield relatively
substantial CAPE given steep mid-level lapse rates/cold air aloft
associated with the upper low.  This anticipated evolution would
lead to rapid, low-topped convective development through late
morning and into the afternoon.

Near and north of the roughly west-to-east occluded front that is
expected to be lifting across Kansas, backed low-level flow will
contribute to favorable shear for organized/rotating storms.  Along
with risk for hail -- possibly up to golf-ball size, and locally
gusty downdraft winds, the vorticity-rich environment near the upper
low would also suggest potential for a couple of tornadoes.  The
bounds of this risk remain uncertain, due to questions regarding the
earlier, cold-frontal convection, but it would appear that the risk
may spread east-northeast into southeast Nebraska and eastern Kansas
through the afternoon, before diminishing quickly into the evening,
due boundary-layer stabilization stemming from the loss of diurnal
heating.

...MAXIMUM RISK BY HAZARD...
Tornado:  10%     - Enhanced
Wind:     30%     - Enhanced
Hail:     30%     - Enhanced

..Goss.. 05/20/2019

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05/20/2019 11:50 AM
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1049 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 201700Z - 211200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

Surface observations and objective analysis data from 15Z indicate
that pockets of elevated to locally critical fire weather conditions
are already occurring over portions of the southern High Plains. The
elevated/critical fire weather conditions are expected to become
more widespread across these areas into this afternoon, as diurnal
heating further promotes RH reductions below Critical thresholds.

The ongoing fire weather forecast remains mostly on track, with only
minor adjustments made based on the latest high-resolution guidance
and recent precipitation analysis. 

See previous discussion below for more information.

..Elliott.. 05/20/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0118 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

...Synopsis...
A potent mid-level wave will approach the southern High Plains
today. An associated mid-level jet will round the base of this
trough and bring very stout winds across portions of the southern
Rockies/High Plains. In eastern Colorado, a deepening surface
cyclone will increase the surface pressure gradient throughout the
period. Winds across southern New Mexico and the adjacent High
Plains will range from 20-30 mph with higher speeds possible in a
few locations, particularly beneath the jet core. Downslope flow off
of the Sierra Madre Occidental will induce afternoon RH between
5-20%. A broader area of elevated fire weather concerns across
southern/central New Mexico and into the Trans-Pecos will exist
during the afternoon. Much of this area will not see critical
concerns due to relatively low fuel loading for this time of year.
Critical fire weather concerns will likely manifest in portions of
southwest New Mexico and far West Texas where ERCs are near normal
and fuels are critically dry. Furthermore, this region should see
less upper-level cloud cover than other areas as the trough
approaches, per forecast soundings. The eastern edge of the elevated
area has been shifted to the west as overnight observations and
model guidance show precipitation developing in portions of eastern
New Mexico.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

Read more

05/20/2019 01:27 PM
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook Image
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1226 PM CDT Mon May 20 2019

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

The forecast of critical/elevated fire weather conditions over
portions of the southern High Plains on Day 2/Tuesday remains on
track with only minimal changes needed with this update. 

Please see previous discussion below for more information.

..Elliott.. 05/20/2019

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0154 AM CDT Mon May 20 2019/

...Synopsis...
As one upper-level shortwave trough ejects into the Plains, another
will begin to move into the Southwest. A ribbon of strong mid-level
flow will remain across the Southwest into the southern Plains on
D2/Tuesday. A still-strengthening lee cyclone in eastern Colorado
will continue to foster a strong surface pressure gradient. These
two features will combine to bring 20-30 mph, with locally higher
speeds, to portions of southern New Mexico and the southern High
Plains. While temperatures are expected to be somewhat cooler,
downslope flow will still help to lower afternoon RH into the 5-20%
range. Elevated fire weather concerns will exist from far southeast
Arizona into portions of central/southern New Mexico and the Trans
Pecos. Areas of the Texas Panhandle will likely see strong westerly
winds and dry conditions, but fuel states and copious precipitation
on D1/Monday will limit any threat. Fuels will continue to be more
receptive in southwest New Mexico into far West Texas. Here,
critical fire weather concerns will exist for a second straight day.
Some consideration was given to expanding the critical area, but
latest SWCC fuel guidance still shows marginally receptive fuels
elsewhere. Given the dry/windy conditions expected on D1/Monday,
expansion could occur in future outlooks should fuels become more
receptive.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

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