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Weather Center


 

North Atlantic Marine Weather Discussion

AGNT40 KWNM 132002
MIMATN

Marine Weather Discussion for N Atlantic Ocean
NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC
302 PM EST Tue Nov 13 2018

.FORECAST DISCUSSION...Major features/winds/seas/significant 
.weather for the North Atlantic Ocean W of 50W from 30N to 50N.

A series of lows will move inland from the southwest toward 
northeast while a ridge of high pressure will persist to the 
southeast of the region and that will result in a persistent 
tight pressure gradient across the forecast waters. Latest GOES16
RGB Geocolor satellite images still show mostly cloudy skies 
with cold top clouds and the intense lightning over the southern 
waters spreading northeast into the central waters. The 
SREF_TSTMS model has up to PROB30 over the central and southern 
waters for thunderstorms and it shows that the chance will spread
to Baltimore Canyon as cold front advances east. The current 
NCEP weather map has low pressure 1004 MB over New England with a
warm front stretching east into the Baltimore Canyon while its 
associated cold front stretches southwest across the forecast 
waters to Georgia coast. High pressure 1030 MB to the east of the
region now centered near 40N56W has its weak ridge extending 
southwest into the eastern edge of the southern waters. Pressure 
gradient is still tight over the northern and central waters with
maximum winds in the storm force threshold just east of the 
Great South Channel. 

Global models GFS/ECMWFHR/UKMETHR/CMC have initialized well the 
latest synoptic surface observations with just small differences
mainly on the actual position of the low pressure near the 
Tri_State region. In the short term, models generally agree on 
allowing the low pressure over the New England area to move 
northeast while its associated cold front moves east across most 
of the waters except the far southern portion where it will 
weaken and stall over the far southern waters. CMC and GFS have 
been quite persistent with winds reaching storm force while 
ECMWFHR and UKMETHR have winds peaking around 40 kt. At 500 MB, 
models still show significant energy embedded in a back hanging 
trough across the Mid West and these energy will shift east and 
get trapped in a cut-off low that will move from southeastern 
states across the Mid Atlantic States. We will therefore lean 
toward a model with higher winds and so will not deviate from the
previous model choice of GFS. 

.SEAS...they now have a peak at 17 ft over the central waters 
and they range between 6 and 13 ft over the northern and 
southern waters. NWW3 still fits very well the observed seas 
pattern across the forecast waters and has continued to be 
quite consistent. ECMWFWAVE model has also initialized generally
well the seas observations with just small differences over the 
Baltimore Canyon. Will therefore continue to use NWW3 guidance 
for seas.

.EXTRATROPICAL STORM SURGE GUIDANCE...ESTOFS has continued to
show positive surge to 1 ft along the Mid Atlc and New England
coasts tonight. ESTOFS and ETSS have also indicated positive
surge in the same area Thu night into Fri as another low pressure
moves near the coast. The values will be in excess of 1 ft and 
ESTOFS even has more than 2 ft in NY Bight and Long Island Sound.
The surge will be close to the ESTOFFS model values because of 
the expected elevated winds. Please continue to closely monitor 
the latest OPC and coastal WFO forecasts over the next few days, 
and refer to the coastal National Weather Service offices for 
more information. 


.WARNINGS...Preliminary.

.NT1 New England Waters...
.ANZ800...Gulf of Maine...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday night. 
     Gale Possible Friday.
.ANZ805...Georges Bank west of 68W...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday night. 
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night. 
.ANZ900...Georges Bank east of 68W...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday night. 
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday night. 
.ANZ810...South of New England...
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday. 
.ANZ815...South of Long Island...
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday. 

.NT2 Mid-Atlantic Waters...
.ANZ820...Hudson Canyon to Baltimore Canyon...
     Gale Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
     Storm Possible Friday.
.ANZ915...Hudson Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale Thursday.
     Storm Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday.
.ANZ920...Baltimore Canyon to the Great South Channel...
     Gale tonight into tonight. 
     Gale Thursday.
     Storm Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday.
.ANZ905...The Great South Channel to the Hague Line...
     Gale tonight into Wednesday night. 
     Storm Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night. 
.ANZ910...East of the Great South Channel and south of 39N...
     Storm early tonight.
     Gale tonight.
     Gale Thursday.
     Storm Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday into Friday night. 
.ANZ825...Inner Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Cape Charles Light...
     Gale Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday. 
.ANZ828...Inner Waters from Cape Charles Light to Currituck Beach Light...
     Gale Thursday.
     Gale Possible Thursday night into Friday. 
.ANZ925...Outer Waters from Baltimore Canyon to Hatteras Canyon...
     Gale early tonight.
     Storm Thursday.
     Storm Possible Thursday night.
     Gale Possible Friday.
.ANZ830...Inner Waters from Currituck Beach Light to Cape Hatteras...
     Gale Thursday.
.ANZ833...Inner Waters from Cape Hatteras to Cape Fear...
     Gale Wednesday into Thursday. 
.ANZ930...Outer Waters from Hatteras Canyon to Cape Fear...
     Gale Wednesday night into Thursday. 
     Gale Possible Thursday night.
.ANZ835...Inner Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Gale Wednesday into Wednesday night. 
.ANZ935...Outer Waters from Cape Fear to 31N...
     Gale Wednesday night.

$$

.Forecaster Musonda. Ocean Prediction Center.

 

 



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