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Expires:No;;431733
AXPZ20 KNHC 231600
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1600 UTC Fri Feb 23 2018

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is
based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and
meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Ashfall Advisory: The Fuego Volcano at 14.5N 90.9W over S 
Guatemala is erupting. A plume of volcanic ash may reach to the 
surface through tonight N of 14N and E of 93W. Low level 
visibilities may be reduced to 1 nm. Mariners should exercise 
caution. If mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged 
to report the observation to the National Weather Service by 
calling 305-229-4425. 

Please refer to the East Pacific High Seas Forecast under 
AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for more details on the 
ashfall advisory.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... 

A surface trough extends SW from the Pacific coast of Costa Rica
near 10N84W to 04N92W to 01N104W. The ITCZ axis continues from 
01N104W to 06N120W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated 
strong convection is within an area bounded by 06N117W to 04N116W
to 03N119W to 04N129W to 06N129W to 07N124W to 06N117W, and also
within an area bounded by 14N118W to 10N124W to 08N131W to 
10N137W to 13N133W to 17N116W to 14N118W.

...DISCUSSION...

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northerly winds at fresh to strong
levels this morning will diminish by the afternoon. Seas of 6-8
ft will subside as the winds diminish.

In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds in the
northern Gulf prevail with moderate to fresh NW to N winds in the
central and southern Gulf. Strengthening high pressure will 
develop fresh to strong NW winds across the far northern waters
tonight with these conditions spreading southward across the 
central and southern Gulf by early Sat through Sat night. Seas 
may build to up to 8 ft during the strongest winds. The pressure 
gradient will relax on Sun and Mon. The next cold front will
approach Mon night and winds will become southerly ahead of it in
the northern Gulf while increasing to fresh to strong Mon night
through Tue, with fresh northerly winds behind the front as it
sinks southward through the early part of the week.

Across the remainder of the open offshore waters of Mexico, a 
ridge axis extends from NW to SE. Moderate to fresh northerly 
winds are observed W of the Baja Peninsula with seas of 5 to 7 
ft. Strengthening high pressure will increase the winds to fresh
to strong this afternoon, with seas building to 7-10 ft in fresh
NW swell. The conditions will gradually spread southward offshore
of the Baja California peninsula through Sat morning, diminishing
thereafter. The associated seas should subside to less than 8 ft
by early Mon, with another round of fresh to strong NW winds, 
accompanied by large NW swell, arriving at 30N120W early Tue with
the next cold front.

OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND 
WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... 

In the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong NE winds will continue
to pulse offshore across the Gulf of Papagayo through early next
week, with seas occasionally building to 7-9 ft as downstream as
10N91W.

In the Gulf of Panama, fresh nocturnal N winds are expected 
across the western Gulf of Panama tonight with these conditions 
extending as far S as 05N80W. Mostly moderate nocturnal drainage 
flow is then forecast on Sat and Sun nights with fresh winds 
expected to resume on Mon night. 

Elsewhere, gentle to moderate offshore flow will prevail N of 
08N while light to gentle SW winds are forecast S of 08N. 

REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 

Strong high pressure well NW of the area will continue to 
support fresh to strong NE trades and seas up to 8-12 ft across 
the tropical waters N of the convergence zone and W of 110W 
through the upcoming weekend when the pressure gradient is 
forecast to further tighten. A fresh batch of northerly swell in
the form of 7-11 ft seas will propagate S of 32N today reaching 
along 22N between 115W and 130W on Sat before beginning to 
subside. 

Strong northerly winds will reach along 32N between 123W and 132W
late Mon and spread S along 27N early Tue associated with the
next cold front.
  
$$
Lewitsky